Yahoo Archive

Big News! Also, Yes, I Am Back at TechCrunch

As loyal readers know I’ve been spending quite a bit of the last few months quietly working on some pretty radical and exciting career changes. I’ve already blogged about my role shifting at Yahoo's TechTicker, and the fact that I’m cutting out almost all conferences this year. I'm finally able to talk about the last two pieces of news today, and you’ll see why it was crucial for me to make a little more time in my schedule. 

The first one is something I’ve been working towards since December 2007: I’ve finally closed my next book deal. Before I tell you about it, let me step back and say that the experience of writing “Once You’re Lucky, Twice You’re Good” was probably the most exhilarating and challenging thing I’ve ever done in my life. I knew I wanted to do another book, but I was worried that anything would pale in comparison.

Business reporters are rarely in the middle of something that’s also a mass cultural movement, the way Web 2.0 was. And it’s even rarer to be the reporter in the middle of that trend early-on, with near-unfettered access. The book was also the culmination of ten years of covering startups and the Web, with so many of the themes of the book coming out of articles I’d written week-after-week and conversations at endless breakfasts, lunches and dinners with investors, coders and nearly everyone who makes up the Valley ecosystem. I worked hard, but I was also in the right place at the right time, and I didn’t think it was possible that I’d find another book that I could be that passionate about again.

Then, a month after finally turning it into my publishers in 2007, I was sitting on a beach in Mexico and my next idea hit me. (My husband may never take me on vacation again.)

The new book is about global entrepreneurship. What I don’t mean by that is globalization or social entrepreneurship. It’s the story of real, ambitious, risk-taking entrepreneurs in emerging markets around the world who are taking advantage of the turmoil all around them to build huge businesses, the Western venture capital money that’s trying to invest in them, and the cultural chasm the two are, so far, having a hard time crossing. To tell this story right, I’m going to spend between 30-40 weeks on the ground in Israel, China, India, Africa and Mexico/South America over the next year and a half. If you follow me on Twitter, you know I've actually already started. It works out to roughly 2-3 weeks at a time overseas, followed by 2-3 weeks here, and a few months with no travel here and there for sanity. My publisher is John Wiley & Sons and, yes, I was border-line insane to try to sell a book in this market. Huge thanks to them for believing in the project so much, and my agent, Daniel Greenberg, for pulling off the impossible once again.

I’ll still keep a foot firmly planted in Silicon Valley—after all, it’s an integral part of this story, too. And I’ll still write my Valley Girl column for BusinessWeek and do three-to-four interviews per month plus my daily Valley Buzz post for TechTicker. I’ll also still appear on NBC’s Press:Here during the weeks that I’m in town.

So, to sum up, we've got a column, I'm hosting one show, commuting an hour to be a regular guest on another and traveling around the world to write a book…is that enough to keep me busy? Hardly. That’s why I’m also announcing that I’ll have an ongoing gig with TechCrunch. Actually, Michael Arrington already did. Given my other responsibilities, I won't be there everyday, but I’ll be writing two-to-five posts per week, likely a lot on the weekends, a lot on airplanes and a lot from the road. You're better off sending announcements about your latest product launch wherever it is you send them now, because I’ll be focusing on analysis of the business of Silicon Valley, emerging markets and the collision between them.

While I've been working on pulling the book together for more than a year, no one is more surprised than I am at the TechCrunch announcement. You should have seen the Cheshire cat "I won" grin on Michael Arrington's face when we finished negotiating it all. He and I have had an ongoing Abbot-and-Costello routine about how I'd never write there because I was too busy and liked writing on this site too much.

But when I filled in for him in February, my thoughts changed. Trolls aside, I was blown away by the level of engagement and love for that blog among entrepreneurs around the world. It's not just a blog about Silicon Valley and Web 2.0. Subscribing to newspapers or business magazines doesn't really mean you read them. (Ask the tall plastic-wrapped stack in my hallway.) But TechCrunch readers read every single thing on that site, chew it up, digest it, spit it out and talk to their friends about it. It seemed the perfect place to write about what I was seeing on the road as the book unfolds, because I'm well aware I can't write this book alone. It needs a community. After all, a world of entrepreneurs is a pretty big topic.

I'm not killing SarahLacy.com. I'll be cross-posting my TechCrunch stuff here, linking to BusinessWeek and Yahoo stuff, and writing more personal posts about my experiences on the road as I travel. And yes, we'll have FlipCam footage.

I said in an interview late last year that my next book would be "stupidly ambitious" and I think I've delivered on that promise. I hope you enjoy the journey as much as I know I will.

I'm Alive, BTW

Just wanted to say a quick blog hai. Things have been nuts for me lately, and now that I'm officially off Michael Arrington-duty, I am trying to dig out of a swamp of logistical things I've been putting off for weeks. Like, getting emails working on my BlackBerry and getting AT&T out here to fix my phone line so I can do radio interviews and have my TiVo back. I'm very proud I finally found time to call the bank and let them know it was indeed me in Africa logging onto my account, not some fraudster, so I can finally pay my bills online again. My various bill collectors are probably glad too. (Yes, I do need a new assistant. I know.)

Long time readers might remember that I'm neurotic and goal-obsessed enough that I not only make a very well thought-out list of New Years Resolutions, but every month I grade myself on how well I do. In January I scored a lousy 61 out of 100. In February I upped that to a 72, partially because i scored higher on the "Be Nicer to Mr. Lacy" category. I'm up to a C-student!

Speaking of goals, I should have some cool news soon. In the meantime, here's the coverage I did for TechCrunch in February, a link to the last two Press:Here shows I was on, my latest ValleyGirl column on unsexy but profitable eNewsletters, and, below, a few segments on gadgets I did with BusinessWeek review honcho Steve Wildstrom for TechTicker last week.

I am still lusting after the Palm Pre more than any other gadget, but the Kindle 2 is a close second.  With all the international travel I'm doing these days Bose Noise Reduction Headsets are a close third. And Mr. Lacy and I have been close to caving on a huge new flat panel for more than a year, but we're taking Mr. Wildstrom's advice in clip #2 below instead. Not that we can afford any of these indulgences. Oh to be back in pre-recession days!

What I've Been up to...

I've been quite the juggler so far this week, so I thought I'd link to some of the stuff I've been up to.

Here's my latest BusinessWeek column. It talks about the erosion of local advertising amid newspapers and why we don't care enough that they're going away to, oh, say, subscribe. Further, I throw doubt on this whole idea that these local ads will flood online creating the next great market. Needless to say, it's created some controversy and push back. A dozen or so companies have written me to tell me they're indeed selling ads to local companies. I don't doubt it. My point is it's near impossible to build one huge-billion dollar business selling ads in local markets throughout the country. It's a bit like the push back I got on my software as a service column. Yeah, customers love it and you can get to $10 million-$50 million in revenues pretty easily. If that's the new end goal for venture backed startups the Valley is in trouble.

Meanwhile, I've also been busy deriding Sirius and actually defending Google over at TechCrunch. And below is the first installment of a four part series of interviews with the controversial Jimmy Wales, founder of Wikipedia. It's a longer clip than we usually run, but I found the stuff at the end about why Wikipedia doesn't put ads on its site particularly interesting. Enjoy!

Amazon: The Exception to all the Rules

My new goal is to get Jeff Bezos on TechTicker. That's right. Fair warning Mr. Bezos: You are the new Moby Dick. (Larry Ellison, you toyed with me for too long.)

Since I've historically been a Valley beat reporter, I've never gotten to interview the Seattle-based Amazon CEO, and I am increasingly amazed with his leadership. Om Malik put it best on TechTicker several months ago, when he said Bezos is the closest thing any Internet company has to a Steve Jobs. Before you hit that comment button: Larry and Sergey aren't CEOs, and Facebook is too young to call.

First off, there are almost no tech founders who remain CEOs from starting a company through its IPO and beyond, particularly given the short-sighted nature of Wall Street these days. The only other one I can think of is Ellison, who I've said before deserves to be the highest paid CEO in tech, for his uncanny ability to get where his business is going from a technology point of view, a market point of view and a business point of view.

But more than that, Ellison is that rare breed who can inspire and terrify his people at the same time, and exert enough authority that Wall Street doesn't question him. Ok, maybe the question him, but they'd never dream of ousting him even in the bad times. In fact, over the last few months while everyone has been saying no other tech CEO has the same value to his company as Jobs, I've argued Ellison is a less-sexy version of the exact same dynamic. (By "less-sexy," I mean he sells databases and middleware, not iPhones. I only swoon for Mr. Lacy and this man.)

Bezos is the only CEO of the Internet generation cut from Ellison cloth. He has routinely stood up to Wall Street and was often considered an absolute dog next to eBay's "monkeys-could-run-us" lean and mean business model. Nonetheless, he thumbed his nose at Wall Street with his famous chortling laugh, which you can hear in the clip below.

Similarly to Ellison, Bezos was a visionary in terms of product (cloud computing and the Kindle), knowing his customers (a brilliant user interface, pioneering recommendation engine technology that actually works, and Amazon Prime) and business (investing more money and continuing to discount quarter-after-money-losing-quarter believing volume would win out in the end).

So I know what you're thinking: What about that Internet "four year curse"? Well, it only holds true for the do-no-wrong Internet darlings like Yahoo, eBay and Google. Amazon never quite fit that. It never had a golden-goose of a business model, so it never got lazy. It never had the luxury to get lazy.

In fact, Amazon is increasingly the exception to not only to the four year curse and the horrific 2008 fourth quarter, but a lot of stories I write. Back in August, I wrote about the antiquated publishing industry. One solitary bright light: The Kindle, which the fourth quarter results showed actually boosted book sales, something so counterintuitive even Amazon-bull Henry Blodget totally mis-calls it in the above video. In a time when Borders is fighting for its life and Barnes & Noble had to cut jobs for the first time in its corporate history, that's nothing short of amazing. (And as a reporter pitching a new book, I'm nothing short of grateful.) You have to wonder whether Bezos sold his soul to the devil during one of those post-2000 quarters when it looked like the company was going to go belly-up.

Then there was my December column on how stagnant ecommerce has been since the 1990s. My one exception? You guessed it: Amazon. There are a zillion small reasons why I always try to make purchases on Amazon, despite that old conventional wisdom that you can't build loyalty in ecommerce because it's so easy to click to a cheaper competitor. Among my reasons: Amazon's superior user interface and search, the ease of one-click purchasing and free overnight shipping via Amazon Prime, and the affiliate system. Amazon has given me more than $1,000 in credit this year, thanks to people clicking through my site to buy my book and other items on Amazon. Speaking of, anyone need to do some shopping? That link is up and to the left...

So, keep up the good work Mr. Bezos, and just know that me and my camera crew are coming for you.

Ch-ch-ch-changes: The TechTicker Edition

I mentioned back in December that several big changes were brewing for me in 2009. A big one was Olivia’s leaving (although she didn't really go anywhere; she just no longer has to do what I say...) and one small one was my new gig as a regular contributor on Press:Here (Yes, mom, real tv!) There are two more very exciting new projects I can’t yet share; I hope to be able to in February. But today, I can finally talk about one big change that’s 90% exciting and 10% sad.

My role with TechTicker is going to be changing next month. Instead of spending three days a week co-hosting the show from Yahoo’s studios, I’m relinquishing my tenuous hold of the co-hosting reins to Aaron Task and Henry Blodget who’ve been far better at being the daily force behind TechTicker than I ever could with all my other commitments and insane travel schedule.

Instead, I’m going to focus on bigger interviews and more produced “Tales of the Valley” documentary-style pieces for TechTicker, and hopefully, elsewhere on Yahoo too. These pieces take longer to schedule and produce so expect less of me on camera. In fact, yesterday was my last Monday morning 5 a.m. trek down. But I’ll continue doing my (mostly) daily “Valley Buzz” column for the site, and at least a few studio days per month. (Attn Paul Kedrosky and others: You’re not done with me yet!)

Why this is 90% exciting is obvious: I’ve always been the kind of reporter who is happier out of the office reporting unique stories or talking to fascinating people, not weighing in on the day-to-day news. Also the cinematic eye of my amazing cameraman and editor, Brad Williams, is frankly wasted just pointing a robotic camera at me every day. We will get to invest more in stories, and TechTicker gets more of what we do really well.

It also gives me far more flexibility. For most of the last 16 months or so I’ve woken up at 5 a.m. on Mondays, Wednesdays and Thursdays, commuted an hour to Sunnyvale and spent all day booking, shooting and editing, then frequently come home to late nights of source meetings, events, or work for my BusinessWeek column. And all too frequently the days in between were spent traveling to speaking gigs, conferences or book tour events. In fact, last week, one of the baristas at the Yahoo coffee bar accused me of not really having a home in SF, just spending my life going from Yahoo to the airport then back to Yahoo. That wasn’t far from the truth in 2008. Frankly, it took a serious toll on my health, my marriage and friendships, and from time-to-time the quality of the work I was producing for Yahoo and BusinessWeek, and of course, my own blog, which was neglected most of all. 

Launching and co-hosting TechTicker has been an amazing experience that has challenged me, excited me, frustrated me and most of all given me a huge appreciation for how hard the video medium is to do well. It was a great change from being heads-down on one huge project, like I was in 2006 and 2007 with the book. But it’s not really my strength. I’m not going to be the Maria Bartiromo of online news, and frankly, I never wanted to be. (Although this piece gave me *huge* amounts of respect for her.) I want to be someone who can work across mediums, continually inspired and challenged by the differences between them. This move will also give me the chance to work more closely on stories with my amazing executive producer Diane Galligan who always makes my pieces better. The chance to learn from her was one of the main reasons I took the job at TechTicker in the first place.

All that said, the move is also tinged with some sadness. I really love the crew that I work with at TechTicker, and Yahoo is—believe it or not—a fun place to go to three-days-week. And with the economic crisis of the last year, being on camera daily has forced me to stay up to date on the latest national news, that doesn’t always permeate the Valley ecosystem. I’ve learned so much about the economy and the markets from Henry, Aaron and regular guests like Paul Kedrosky. Now, I hope the ability to focus on telling fewer stories really well will help me teach our millions of viewers more about Silicon Valley, which is, after all, the reason I took the job in the first place and the reason I was hired.

On the jump are a few of my favorite interviews and Tales of the Valley pieces we did early in the year before the studio grind took over. Hope it whets your appetite for what’s to come! Also in the comments, feel free to leave your ideas of a dream segment or guest.

Death of Venture Capital, Part 825

A lot of stories in the press in the last few days that echo my past BusinessWeek columns about how this downturn is very different for the venture capital industry. Problems in short: The ten year index that the industry has held up since the Nasdaq crash is about to plummet. 1999 and early 2000 returns will fall off in a little more than a year, and more than 70% of VCs don't expect an exit window until 2010 at the earliest. Problem #2: Beleaguered institutions that invest in venture capital are increasingly trying to sell off their stakes. Worse: Some are considering flaking on capital calls altogether.

To those of you who say platitudes like: "Downturns are GREAT times for innovation!" yes, that's true, but you are missing the point. This isn't just the cause of a downturn. This is a structural change in the industry that needs to occur and has been building for nearly a decade. There is far too much money, tech is maturing, and clean tech isn't mature enough. Paul Kedrosky and I discussed yesterday on TechTicker:

But, beyond all this, I think there's also a mindset problem when it comes to venture capital. Investors and many entrepreneurs are no longer focused on building companies and taking real risk. Paul and I did another clip yesterday about Facebook, where he argued it doesn't make sense for Facebook to stay a stand alone company anymore because the ad markets are going to be locked up for 24 months.

I love P-Ked, but what the hell does a 24 month contraction have to do with building a company? Especially a company that's still private, growing like mad, has loads of money in the bank and is essentially break even? We've got to break ourselves from this quick-fix, quarter-to-quarter mentality of Wall Street-- and increasingly Silicon Valley-- if any next great tech companies are going to be formed. The very reason great companies are typically started during downturns is they're started by people who aren't obsessed with timing a market. They're started by real entrepreneurs.

Paul and I also debated what Facebook's "real" value is now, and I put real in quotes because startup valuations are always based on promise, team, and a lot of other intangibles that will hopefully lead to a great business, but don't reflect business fundamentals right now. Yes, Facebook still has to nail its business model, and if it doesn't it's valuation could fall by 90%. But I argue the downturn is a great time to do that, especially considering the amount of money Facebook has raised for cheap and revenue it already gets from its lucrative Microsoft ad contracts. Is it worth $15 billion? No but it never was, as I explain in the clip below. It's definitely worth somewhere in the low billions and definitely shouldn't sell this year in a panicked market where every big company has a weakened stock currency.

My Crazy, Crazy 2008

The end of the year is naturally a time for reflection, and it's even more so for me, what with my birthday wedged in between Christmas and New Years. Two years ago at this time, I'd just quit BusinessWeek-- a job I'd slaved for some eight years to get-- to write my first book. A lot of people thought I was crazy on both counts: It's not like we're swimming in media jobs these days and back in 2006 a lot of people didn't even think the companies in my book would still be in business by 2008. 2007 was a year I had to deliver and prove them all wrong. At least professionally, it was the most exhilarating year of my life. 2008 on the other hand was, well....it was amazing, exhausting, transformative, exciting, terrifying, emotional and well....how the hell was it just one year?

All reporters have to do these dorky year end surveys, quizzes and lists this time of year. I know-- because my SXSW interview has been on seemingly ALL of them. But believe it or not other stuff happened to me too! As I look back on 2008 and get ready for 2009, here's my list of the biggest moments of what I can only call one of the most unimaginable years of my life.

10. Buying a house. I know that sounds materialistic, but my husband is an artist and I'm a writer. We never thought we'd be able to buy a house in San Francisco. The second we saw the house we knew. I sent a note to my realtor that said "We are in love" in the subject line with the address in the body. She replied, "Well, do you want propose or just flirt with it a while?" We wrote up an offer later that day. There were a million points where the deal should have fallen apart-- not the least of which was an exploding credit market.

9. Taking my family and my in laws to Mexico for Thanksgiving. Again, this was one of those things we'd never assume we could do-- for one thing I have a big family! We'll probably never be able to afford it again, but it was worth every penny. I'm incredibly lucky that my family and my in-laws get along so well. It was an idyllic week with perfect weather, water and food.

8. My first grownup keynote. I've been on stage a zillion times but never doing a paid, Power Pointy keynote. I don't know why, but it was terrifying!!! I've sat through so many bad keynotes and I didn't want to be that guy. Also, I kinda felt like a fraud. Why am I up here? I'm just a reporter. I freaked out for months and was so happy when it was done! Huge props to Olivia for helping me through it and to Al Campa for hiring me to do it!

7. April. Before 2008, I'd barely been outside the country. Growing up in a family of seven with parents who are teachers means no cushy summers abroad, unfortunately. But that's only made me appreciate the opportunity to travel more. I spent most of April in London, Cannes and Israel-- three places I'd never been before. London was just pure fun, thanks in no small part to Mr. Robert Loch who I met for the first time on that trip. In Cannes, I was speaking at a conference and had a near-panic attack when the car picked me up at the airport and drove me to a comped 400-euro-a-night hotel. "Who do these people think I am?" Israel was even more amazing, particularly touring Old Jerusalem.  (Even with near-pneumonia.)

6. Launching this blog. Yeah, it's even weird to me: I've been blogging since 2005, but never on my own site. Granted, the blog is a weird mis-mash of a personal diary (ahem, including this navel-gracing post!), a legitimate news blog, and a lifecast. You never quite know what you're going to get here. But it's mine and I love it and I don't care if it ever produces a dime of revenue. Huge props to my illustrator Sophie Askew and web designer Stephanie Chu for building such a beautiful site.

5. SXSW-- really. I've already talked about it in nearly 100 interviews, on stage, on this blog and everywhere else, so I won't belabor it. First off, it was huge in the name recognition department, driving tons of people-- even people who hate me-- to my site, to buy my book, and to every event I hosted. Second, there's something great about low expectations. You have no idea how many times I've heard someone say in a stunned voice, "You know. You're actually not horrible in person!" Third, I've never been one of those people who wished for mind reading abilities. I really just don't want to know. But there is something powerful in knowing every horrible, sexist, offensive, mean thought a mob of people are having about you. There's no mystery and whether you agree or not, you can always learn from it, and become a better person as a result. Fourth, you learn a lot about who your real friends are when it's fashionable to trash you. And last, before SXSW I was getting a lot of accolades. The best way not to believe your own hype is to get publicly brutalized.

4. User Generated Book Tour. In the up-and-down year that was 2008, my book had a great launch and then sales started to slip. I decided on a whim to do a book tour, and it was probably the best business decision I made all year. I've already written a ton about why, but in short I got to meet thousands of entrepreneurs and spend the bulk of my fall outside the Valley's echo chamber after nearly a decade inside of it. Oh, and I sold a bunch of books too.

3. TechTicker launch. It was terrifying and exhilarating all at once. We'd worked so hard for so many months, and it was so great to finally show people how we were reinventing financial video news. I developed a whole new appreciation for the way you can tell a story visually that you never can in words. Also, I gained valuable lessons in hair and makeup. I'm not kidding-- some mornings at 6 a.m. I walk into Yahoo looking homeless, yet somehow manage to look sunny on camera. I'll always remember the first day I shot at the Nasdaq with Henry Blodget. I'd never met him before and was completely charmed within minutes. They also had a big, fancy New York hair and makeup girl who put such heavy eyelashes on me I could barely open my eyes. And after years of watching financial news shows, actually filming at the Nasdaq was surreal. I kept thinking, "I'm just a print reporter! What am I doing here?"

2. Geoff's art auction moment. For all the time I spent putting myself out there in 2008, I never actually had to watch people publicly bid on my work. But my husband did. He killed at SF Camera Work's annual art auction-- one of the only pieces that went for more than the list price. I was so proud of him.

1. Debut of the book. (Duh!) Walking into the opening night party to see so many friends, do all my first signings, and eat "Once You're Lucky" or "Twice You're Good" cupcakes-- that was all just magic and a moment I never thought I'd be lucky (har, har) enough to have. It will always be one of the best moments of my life, probably second only to my wedding.

Thanks to everyone who stood by me, challenged me and defended me in what was an unbelievable year. I'd say, "Here's to a calm 2009," but who am I kidding?

[Photos: Me blogging before my birthday dinner by Geoffrey Ellis; me on the beach in Israel by JD Lasica; screen grab from TT and me walking into my book party by Jim Merithew for Wired.com] 

My Year at Yahoo in Under Three Minutes

I was a little scared to open the computer today. My crew-- which is sadly now just one person thanks to Yahoo's layoffs-- was working on a blooper reel of me that I wasn't allowed to see until it posted today.  As usual, Brad did an amazing job, especially considering how hard it is to find clips of me messing up that don't involve a string of expletives. What resulted is actually a pretty sweet highlight reel of my first year trying to learn to be on camera after a decade of print reporting-- something I long said I'd never do. A few things jump out at me watching this-- but the biggest is how much younger I look in the clips from a year ago! 2008 has aged me!

Perhaps it's the wide-eyed excitement that makes me look young. It wasn't just learning to report in a new medium, we were creating a new platform for financial video news. We all thought freeing the videos from a set broadcast schedule, making them embeddable and available on demand would change how people consume financial news, but TechTicker has outperformed even the most optimistic projections. On our peak days, we see several million streams, and the interview I did with Sue Decker just after Microsoft walked away from its offer did several million streams on its own. Other favorite interviews have included Richard Branson, Dean Kamen, and of course, Zach Nelson, the day Netsuite had finally gone public.

Who knows how long I'll do TechTicker or how long anyone will with the uncertainty around Yahoo, but I am really happy I have this clip to remember the frustrations and fun times of helping launch a new video show during such a pivotal year in my life. Enjoy!

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes, Part 1.5

So, change number two in my life involves my role at TechTicker. I'm not going anywhere, so don't worry, all five of you who tune into the show for just for my tech news and interviews, eschewing Aaron and Henry's far more popular daily Bailout Nation missives. (Honest to God, the real victims of the credit meltdown are tech reporters! Oh, Facebook just exploded into a ball of fiery ashes? Yawn. WAIT! WHAT WAS MADOFF WEARING WHEN HE RIPPED EVERYONE OFF!?!?!?!?!?!?! Oh, I kid, I kid. And I digress...)

More on all the changes soon, but one thing I'm going to start doing is a daily text post on the buzz of the Valley, as collected through Twitter, conversations in line at Starbucks, and, of course, the blogosphere. If you're outside the Valley, think of it as a way to feel inside. If you're inside the Valley, think of it as a way to get some of that sweet Yahoo Finance traffic 'cause there will be a whole lot of linking going on.

Here's post one. Let me know thoughts and please read, pass on, comment, vote and all that business.

'Tis the Season of Disasterous Unintended Consequences

As I've said before, I'm starting to get irrationally freaked about the downturn and just how much worse 2009 could get. But my fears of every employer of ours going insolvent, and Mr. Lacy and I ending up in the poor house are-- by any stretch-- a long shot. Even the worst case scenario is likely some belt tightening, which we've done before and can do again. (Tip: Short Diane Von Furstenberg if this occurs.)

But there is something else I'm very scared about, and it's all too rational: Unintended consequences of government intervention. The TARP bailout was merely the beginning to a drunken spree of spending, regulation and scapegoats that'll continue at least through first quarter of 2009, and I'm betting even longer. It's a mad-dash to soothe the stock market, which is irrational at best. And you know what happens in mad-dashes? People fall and trip on scissors.

First, consider, a cautionary tale from the last bust: Here's a great piece in the Wall Street Journal by Mike Malone, one of my very favorite authors. (In fact, Infinite Loop is the best book written on Apple IMHO. Not too late to get one for your favorite fan boy for Christmas....) Malone's piece echoes several of the "Nontrepreneur" chapter in my book, and a good many columns I've written about the very real problems venture capitalists are facing, although I tend to point the finger at Wall Street more than Washington. As usual, Malone makes his points in elegant style.

And now a cautionary tale for 2009. Paul "It's only fairly apocalyptic" Kedrosky likes to come up with doomsday scenarios, and sadly in 2008 a lot of them were right on. But this situation he describes in our video below is one of the scariest. (Hint: ZOMBIES!)

This is what happens when we slap-dash regulations and bailouts to pacify voters and mob-investors. I don't know a single expert, journalist, commentator or luminary that said the bailout plan was well thought out. But at the same time there was high-pitched screeching when it wasn't immediately passed. This is just one unintended consequence of the "YOU HAVE TO DO SOMETHING!" school of governance. Do you know how many we haven't even seen yet?

I started my career covering regional banks and you can't overestimate how much the fabric of America is woven into them. The U.S. Government certainly can't afford to bail them all out. Already we're stretched so thin, China is downgrading our credit rating for the first time.

I know, I know, not exactly happy Christmas wishes. The above video is far more suited for Halloween.